GWOT comes to Somalia

It has been a long while since I wrote a post and so much has happened in the meantime. In Somalia, Ethiopian forces have made short shrift of the much vaunted Union of Islamic Courts. In less than two weeks, the courts have been routed from many of the towns they formerly controlled and what remains of their forces is now trapped on the southern tip of the country. The noose around them is tightening as the Ethiopians advance from the north, the Kenyan border to the south and west remains closed and American warships cut off any eastward escape to the sea.

The parallels with the second Gulf War are rather unsettling. As was the case with Iraqi army, many of the armed men whose allegiance lay with the Courts simply vanished in the face of Ethipoia’s overwhelming force. Now Al-Qa'ida's second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri is calling for “Muslim brethren everywhere to respond to the call for jihad in Somalia” employing “ambushes, mines, raids, and martyrdom-seeking (suicide) campaigns”. Right on cue, today brought news of American air strikes against elements of the ICU fleeing Mogadishu. As usual, US policy seems peculiarly designed to create the maximum number of terrorists.

If there was one place where America was helpful by its military absence, Somalia was it. For as long as no American forces were seen to take part in the fighting, the task force off the Somali coast notwithstanding, it would have been difficult for Al-Qaida to turn Somalia into a cause célèbre for jihadists around the world. However, by launching these air strikes, instead of waiting for the Ethiopians to finish the job, the US may have just provided the fuel for another Iraq-type “insurgency”. I suspect that many jihadists, whose goal in life seems to be to die fighting the “Great Satan”, will now be attracted by the new opportunities to do so in Somalia. It is these foreign fanatics who have the funding, expertise and will to create havoc on such a scale that the last 15 years would seem a paragon of peace and order. This conflict, which has previously been cast as a purely African affair, is in danger of becoming another front in the disastrous War on Terror. And it is Africans who would shoulder the awful burden of such an eventuality.

The air strikes also work to undermine the Transitional Federal Government by leaving it open to accusations of being a US puppet. While it is common knowledge that the US provided diplomatic cover for the Ethiopian action, the TFG itself has not so far been described as an American imposition. Considering the last US foray into Somalia, such a charge could prove fatal to President Abdullahi Yusuf’s ambitions of exerting his authority over the whole of Somalia.

Also this week, an interesting story from the UK about the furore raised over the decision by a former Education Secretary to take her kid out of public schooling and into private school. The merits of that particular case notwithstanding, I generally consider it hypocritical for those who manage education and health systems to turn to the private sector for the same services for themselves and their families. Such a disdain of the fruits of their own handiwork hardly inspires confidence. But don’t look to our Kenyan backbenchers or the opposition to make an issue of it. They are too busy lining their own pockets to care about public services.